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The moderate increase in inflation in the United States consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts in December. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor on December 11, local time, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in November, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over October. Inflation continues to rise moderately, which is in line with the market's previous judgment and also supports the expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this month. However, considering the slowdown in inflation and the increase in uncertainties affecting the economy, many analysts believe that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future. (Economic Information Daily)A delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers visited China. Today, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said that at the invitation of China Institute of International Strategic Studies, a delegation of Japanese young and middle-aged military officers will visit China from November 26th to December 4th. The Sino-Japanese exchange program for young and middle-aged officers began in 2001, which played an important role in enhancing understanding and trust between the defense departments of the two countries. We are willing to work with Japan to continue to promote mutual visits and exchanges and provide positive energy for the improvement and development of bilateral relations.Media Office in the Gaza Strip: The Israeli army bombed the Nuseilet refugee camp, killing 33 people. According to Palestinian media, from the evening of 12th to the early morning of 13th local time, the Israeli army attacked the central and southern parts of the Gaza Strip, causing a lot of casualties. According to the Gaza Media Office, 33 people were killed and 84 others were missing or injured in the Israeli bombing of Nuseilet refugee camp in central Gaza on the evening of 12th. The Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds reported that Israeli troops bombed a tent for displaced people in Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza, early on the 13th, killing two people and injuring many others.

Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.The yield of 10-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by more than 3 basis points to 1.775% and then hit a record low. The yield of 30-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market initially dropped by nearly 4 basis points to 2%, also hitting a record low.Futures on the Nikkei Stock Exchange of Singapore opened down 175 points to 39,635.

CICC: Cloud and terminal AI landing In 2025, the localization of semiconductors and components ushered in a new cycle. According to CICC's research report, in 2024, semiconductors and components as a whole were in the upward stage of prosperity. It is expected that inventory, supply and demand will stabilize in 2025, and AI cloud and terminal demand will land, and domestic elements will usher in a new cycle. It is expected that in 2025, the AI ​ ​ replacement tide is expected to accelerate the downstream demand growth of the semiconductor design sector. We are optimistic about the demand expansion of cloud and end-side computing chips driven by AI, and the alpha level of individual stocks is optimistic about the pull of product structure expansion on the performance of related companies, and it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by mergers and acquisitions for some tracks. It is expected that the supply and demand of chip manufacturing will approach a balance in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level; Among them, the research and development of advanced process manufacturing is expected to continue to advance, driving the development of equipment, parts, materials and design tools.Employees hide $154 million in accounts. Macy's said that internal control was ineffective. On Thursday, Macy's said that a reassessment of its financial situation showed that as of February this year, the internal control (including proper record maintenance) of the chain department store was not effective. The retailer launched an evaluation at the end of November after discovering that an employee had concealed as much as $154 million in expenses for many years. Therefore, the company postponed the release of the third quarter earnings report until December 11th. Macy's said that under the supervision of the board of directors, Tony Spring, its CEO, and Adrian Mitchell, its chief financial officer, re-evaluated the effectiveness of internal control, and pointed out that its financial report was not effective as of February 3 due to major defects. The department store chain said that it is implementing changes to improve internal control and make up for major defects.Market news: Trump's advisers seek to reduce or cancel banking regulators.